The Big Picture

Last night cemented Missouri’s status as a solid red state.

· Donald Trump trounced Joe Biden in Missouri. Trump’s 15-point margin 56.8% to 41.2% was closer to his 2016 18-point win than the single digit range polls showed through the campaign.

· Mike Parson beat Nicole Galloway by 17-points (57.1% to 40.5%), largely echoing the top of the ticket.

· Down-ballot races were all GOP romps as well. Republicans won with with 20% margins, the highest being Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft’s 60.5% win over his Democratic challenger’s 36.2%.

MO Turn Out

Even before the polls opened this morning, over 825,000 Missourians had already cast their ballot.

If the estimated turnout of 75% is correct, Missourians will cast 3.2 million votes for president, about 400,000 more than in 2016.

· Morning Consult has Trump winning Missouri by 9, 52%-43%. See it here.

1. US debt

2. GDP bounces back

3. COVID in Rural MO

4. Seniors the key to battleground states?

5. MidMO electoral hot spot

6. But full of cross-currents

7. Missouri’s energy mix now

8. But not forever

9. Over budget projects

Q1: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgernsen, and the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 50% (51%)

Joe Biden: 45% (45%)

Jo Jorgensen: 2% (1%)

Howie Hawkins: 1% (1%)

Undecided: 2% (2%)

Another Day of Bad COVID Numbers

Governor Mike Parson gave a COVID briefing yesterday which skirted the bad news of the day: the state data dashboard crashed again, and when the numbers did appear, it showed a jump in cases and deaths.

Overall there are 126,647 more registered voters today compared to November 2016.

5 Largest increases, by county

St. Charles 291,625 +15,697

Jackson 270,077 +13,736

Jefferson 159,161 +10,321

Greene 204,068 +9,390

Cass 80,379 +8,804

HDCC Hits $1M Raised

The House Democratic Campaign Committee reached a milestone yesterday… $1 million raised in this cycle.

This is a huge leap from their 2018 cycle. The 30-Day After report in 2018 showed $620K raised during that year.

Galloway’s Final Ad

The Galloway campaign’s final ad is out today.

The next Governor will have a big job: to dig us out of this COVID mess. Let’s be real: Mike Parson will do everything the same old way… That won’t cut it anymore… It’s time for a New Way of doing things.

Misleading COVID Dashboard

The state’s COVID data dashboard understates the number of current deaths from COVID.

As of this morning, it reports 65 deaths in the past seven days. The number of actual deaths is certainly higher.

The discrepancy between the dashboard and reality is due to the reporting lag. It takes time – sometimes days, sometimes weeks – for deaths to show up on the state dashboard.

In the last seven days, the state has reported 195 new deaths. But because of the data lag, only 65 of those have been reported occurred within the past seven days.

1. Missourians are giving up looking for work.

2. It’s a national problem.

3. Amazon coming to Republic, MO?

4. Apprenticeships reimagined.

5. Leading industry: protective service occupations.

6. Coattails.

7. Electoral College has become a partisan issue.

8. Trump tweeting more in ALL CAPS.

9. John Hancock and Michael Kelley nominated for an Emmy.

10. Halloween poll

11. 2020.

Two New MEC Opinions

The Missouri Ethic Commission released two new opinions…

130.031 and Article VIII, Section 23 Candidates may reuse campaign signs from previous elections. There is no reporting required by this use…

More Money to Senate 15

In the large contributions, another $230K+ is headed to the pro-Andrew Koenig PAC, Freedom’s Promise. One assumes this money will get quickly routed into another batch of last-minute ads as Koenig tries to fend off Democrat Deb Lavender. It’s a hot race!

Parson Calls Special Session

Governor Mike Parson announced that the special session to pass a supplemental budget.It will convene on the Thursday after Election Day, November 5.

DESE Creates New Office of Early Learning

At yesterday’s State Board of Education meeting, the Department of Elementary and Secondary Education announced it was creating a new Office of Early Learning.

Team Koenig Swings at Lavender

A new ad from Sen. Andrew Koenig’s IE PAC ties Rep. Deb Lavender to disgraced former County Executive Steve Stenger.

The ad’s claim rests on a $250 contribution from Citizens for Steve Stenger to Lavender for State Rep back in December of 2015.

Harassment Campaign in Senate 19

Sen. Caleb Rowden appears to be the subject of a harassment campaign.

· Rowden wrote last week about his wife being followed, about folks hanging around their street, and a late-night masked visitor (with what looks like a crowbar) to their home.

· Over the weekend, Rudi Keller reported that someone posing as Rowden sent a text saying he was dropping out of politics.

1. Hospitalizations chart.

2. Rural positivity rates.

3. Northwest MO COVID analytics

4. Priority populations for vaccines

5. Child care centers getting slammed.

6. Arts too.

7. Biden wins most Election Night scenarios (right now).

8. Powered by women.

9. Though not in MO.

10. Metro adds first electric bus.

Q2: The candidates in the 2020 General Election for President of the United States are the Republican Donald Trump, the Democrat Joe Biden, the Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen, and the Green Party candidate Howie Hawkins. If the election were held today, for whom would you vote?

Donald Trump: 51%

Joe Biden: 45%

Jo Jorgensen: 1%

Howie Hawkins: 1%

Undecided: 2%

Down Ballot GOPers Hold COH Advantage

The October filings show that Republicans hold substantial cash advantages over their Democratic opponents in three of the four statewide down ballot races.Although Nicole Galloway – the Democrat at the top of the ticket – has recorded explosive fundraising numbers, that enthusiasm hasn’t translated into cash for the rest of the slate.