GOP’s New IP Incentive

Last session one of the Republicans’ top priorities was to reform the initiative petition process.  For years, Republicans have grumbled that the process is too easy.  But also, it’s been used to circumvent their control over major public policy areas.  

Marijuana IP Certified

Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft announced that the initiative petition asking Missouri voters to legal marijuana had gathered enough signatures to qualify for the November ballot. 

Cierpiot Rips Conservative Caucus

Sen. Mike Cierpiot let loose on the Pete Mundo radio show yesterday.  It’s about 17 minutes.  But it’s jammed packed. 

Fitzwater Stock Rises

Rep. Travis Fitzwater’s come-from-behind victory in Senate 10 has made him a hot commodity. 

Hot July Revenue

The new fiscal year started off with white hot state tax receipts. 

Senate Prognosis: Another Year of Fighting

Assessing Tuesday’s results, top of mind for many lobbyists is the state of the senate, and of course the composition of the Conservative Caucus.

There’s a firehose worth of results from last night’s primary election. Here’s the quick first impressions…

Polls are open…

US Senate

Here we are one day away from Election Day…

1. COVID + CRT = Change in Ed Issue?

2. Biden approval hits new low.

3. Missouri murder stat.

4. MO’s top agricultural export.

5. State of real estate.

6. Changing ad industry.

7. Marijuana slang.

Late Independent Expenditures

· Interesting to see that the pro-Travis Fitzwater PAC, Kingdom Leadership, spent a fair amount in recent days attacking Bryan Spencer. By my thinking, Mike Carter would be the obvious target in that race. Spencer might even be helping Fitzwater by cutting into Carter’s numbers in Wentzville.

SurveyUSA Poll

SurveyUSA released a Missouri Senate poll yesterday. Key points…

· Republican results have Schmitt leading (28%), but with Greitens in second (20%) and Hartzler in third (13%).

· Democratic results have Valentine way out in front (40%) of Kunce (14%).

Five Days…

Five days until Election Day, and the much-ballyhooed Donald Trump endorsement is still under warps or perhaps not even coming.

Q4: Would you consider voting for an Independent candidate for US Senate, if your preferred candidate doesn’t win?

Yes: 42%

No: 31%

Not Sure: 27%

8-Day Reports

I updated the 2022 Watch spreadsheet. For all state legislative primaries, you can see how much each candidate (and their PAC) reported raising, spending, and their cash on-hand total.  As a reminder, these 8-Day Reports cover July 1 – 21.  In others words, it’s still a rearview mirror perspective, but the 21st brings us up to last week. 

Survey conducted July 23 through July 24, 2022. 802 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey.

Q4: What is your opinion of Eric Greitens?

Favorable: 26%

Unfavorable: 52%

No opinion: 22%

1. Midterm history.

2. College enrollment.

3. Sector employment by county.

4. STL housing costs.

5. & 6. Baseball.

7. Long-term gains.

Survey conducted by Remington Research July 19 - 21. 344 likely 2022 Republican Senate District 2 Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence.

Q4: Should Donald Trump run for president in 2024?

Yes: 51%

No: 38%

Not Sure: 11%

TOP STORY
MOScout Forecast
I’m a little later than usual sitting down and making my best guess at winners in the Aug 2 elections. Find them on the 2002 tracker spreadsheet. My picks are in bold.

Remember the Dem Auditor Candidate? I’m obviously focused on the primary election right now, but a quick look at the July report of Alan Green, the Democratic candidate for auditor, shows how anemic fundraising is right now for his campaign.