1. Midterm history.

2. College enrollment.

3. Sector employment by county.

4. STL housing costs.

5. & 6. Baseball.

7. Long-term gains.

Survey conducted by Remington Research July 19 - 21. 344 likely 2022 Republican Senate District 2 Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence.

Q4: Should Donald Trump run for president in 2024?

Yes: 51%

No: 38%

Not Sure: 11%

TOP STORY
MOScout Forecast
I’m a little later than usual sitting down and making my best guess at winners in the Aug 2 elections. Find them on the 2002 tracker spreadsheet. My picks are in bold.

Remember the Dem Auditor Candidate? I’m obviously focused on the primary election right now, but a quick look at the July report of Alan Green, the Democratic candidate for auditor, shows how anemic fundraising is right now for his campaign.

Pro-Hartzler PAC Mocks Schmitt’s Baseball Ad

Secure Our Freedom Action Fund, a pro-Vicky Hartzler PAC, is releasing a new ad which uses footage from Eric Schmitt’s “baseball ad.” However instead of Schmitt hitting the balls, he strikes out as the ad recounts his positions on China Hub, and Chinese ownership of Missouri farm land.

Ben Brown Starts “Fighter” Ad

In Senate 26, Ben Brown is on the air this morning – cable TV buy – with an ad referencing his experience as a mixed martial arts fighter. 

Money Trails

Of note from the large contributions list…

· Floor Leader Caleb Rowden’s PAC received $200K from RightPath and another $150K from Rex Sinquefield. The money will presumably be deployed to help Republicans in primaries who will be supportive of Rowden’s leadership next session.

· RightPath also sent $100K to Speaker-elect Dean Plocher’s PAC, as well as $20K to Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick’s PAC.

· Interesting to see the Carpenters’ union giving to the House Republican Campaign Committee…

1. Fewer gas stations.

2. Giving inflation the bird.

3. Last time states’ governorship flipped.

4. Tough year for incumbents?

5. Young women more liberal than young men.

6. Signal or Noise?

The Missouri Ethic Commission got hit with a technical glitch yesterday. As a result, the website that candidates use to file their quarterly finance reports was offline.  As of this morning, there are some campaigns that haven’t filed yet, preventing a full view of the quarter. But I made a spreadsheet.  It has the state senate primaries as well as statewide races (I threw on “Governor 2024” as well).

Carpenters back Wiemann

In Senate 2, the Carpenters’ union sent $100K to Rep. John Wiemann’s PAC.

CFG PAC Hits KC Airwaves

Pro-Rick Brattin ads sponsored by the School Freedom Foundation – a PAC aligned with the Club for Growth – have begun airing. “President Trump is still battling for this country and Rick Brattin is ready to join the fight.”   Tagline: Rick Bratton. For Trump. For Congress.

Roorda Ad

Jeff Roorda is now on the air in Senate 22.  It’s a law-and-order ad entitled “Protect and Serve” referencing his time as Jefferson County police officer, and his time as a state representative.

Gregory Launches TV

Rep. David Gregory will release his first TV ad this morning. It’s a 15-second spot.

Gregory opens the contrast with his primary opponent. There’s a picture of Scott Fitzpatrick who Gregory calls an “establishment politician,” while twice referring to himself as an auditor.

Team PAC Out of Gas?

Team PAC, the Super PAC support Eric Greitens for US Senate, appears to have expended all of their resources ahead of the final push.

1. Livestock vs Pets.

2. Wild Hog Explosion.

3-4. Abortion.

5. Stance on transgender issues, by religion.

6. Motivations for Midterms.

7. States with estate taxes.

8. Communication technology?

Trump Says Hartzler Won’t Get His Endorsement

Twitter lit up last night after former President Donald Trump announced on his social media platform that he had ruled out endorsing Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler. 

Devastating New Anti-Greitens Ad

The latest ad from the Show Me Values PAC uses quotes from Sheena Greitens’ affidavit.  It’s devastating. 

Hartzler Super PAC Launches Ads

Secure Our Freedom Action Fund is launching an ad today, “Tough,” in support of Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler. The ad calls her “a proven Christian conservative,” and promises that she will “finish Trump’s wall.”

Public Opinion Strategies Senate 2 Poll

A tipster passed along this poll from Patrick Lanne’s Public Opinion Strategies.  He’s worked for HRCC and other MO GOP candidates over the years. 

Ed Reformers Load PAC

The Missouri Federation for Children PAC received $500,000 from the American Federation for Children over the weekend…