US Senate

Here we are one day away from Election Day…

1. COVID + CRT = Change in Ed Issue?

2. Biden approval hits new low.

3. Missouri murder stat.

4. MO’s top agricultural export.

5. State of real estate.

6. Changing ad industry.

7. Marijuana slang.

Late Independent Expenditures

· Interesting to see that the pro-Travis Fitzwater PAC, Kingdom Leadership, spent a fair amount in recent days attacking Bryan Spencer. By my thinking, Mike Carter would be the obvious target in that race. Spencer might even be helping Fitzwater by cutting into Carter’s numbers in Wentzville.

SurveyUSA Poll

SurveyUSA released a Missouri Senate poll yesterday. Key points…

· Republican results have Schmitt leading (28%), but with Greitens in second (20%) and Hartzler in third (13%).

· Democratic results have Valentine way out in front (40%) of Kunce (14%).

Five Days…

Five days until Election Day, and the much-ballyhooed Donald Trump endorsement is still under warps or perhaps not even coming.

Q4: Would you consider voting for an Independent candidate for US Senate, if your preferred candidate doesn’t win?

Yes: 42%

No: 31%

Not Sure: 27%

8-Day Reports

I updated the 2022 Watch spreadsheet. For all state legislative primaries, you can see how much each candidate (and their PAC) reported raising, spending, and their cash on-hand total.  As a reminder, these 8-Day Reports cover July 1 – 21.  In others words, it’s still a rearview mirror perspective, but the 21st brings us up to last week. 

Survey conducted July 23 through July 24, 2022. 802 likely 2022 Republican Primary voters participated in the survey.

Q4: What is your opinion of Eric Greitens?

Favorable: 26%

Unfavorable: 52%

No opinion: 22%

1. Midterm history.

2. College enrollment.

3. Sector employment by county.

4. STL housing costs.

5. & 6. Baseball.

7. Long-term gains.

Survey conducted by Remington Research July 19 - 21. 344 likely 2022 Republican Senate District 2 Primary Election voters participated in the survey. Survey weighted to match expected turnout demographics. Margin of Error is +/-5.1% with a 95% level of confidence.

Q4: Should Donald Trump run for president in 2024?

Yes: 51%

No: 38%

Not Sure: 11%

TOP STORY
MOScout Forecast
I’m a little later than usual sitting down and making my best guess at winners in the Aug 2 elections. Find them on the 2002 tracker spreadsheet. My picks are in bold.

Remember the Dem Auditor Candidate? I’m obviously focused on the primary election right now, but a quick look at the July report of Alan Green, the Democratic candidate for auditor, shows how anemic fundraising is right now for his campaign.

Pro-Hartzler PAC Mocks Schmitt’s Baseball Ad

Secure Our Freedom Action Fund, a pro-Vicky Hartzler PAC, is releasing a new ad which uses footage from Eric Schmitt’s “baseball ad.” However instead of Schmitt hitting the balls, he strikes out as the ad recounts his positions on China Hub, and Chinese ownership of Missouri farm land.

Ben Brown Starts “Fighter” Ad

In Senate 26, Ben Brown is on the air this morning – cable TV buy – with an ad referencing his experience as a mixed martial arts fighter. 

Money Trails

Of note from the large contributions list…

· Floor Leader Caleb Rowden’s PAC received $200K from RightPath and another $150K from Rex Sinquefield. The money will presumably be deployed to help Republicans in primaries who will be supportive of Rowden’s leadership next session.

· RightPath also sent $100K to Speaker-elect Dean Plocher’s PAC, as well as $20K to Treasurer Scott Fitzpatrick’s PAC.

· Interesting to see the Carpenters’ union giving to the House Republican Campaign Committee…

1. Fewer gas stations.

2. Giving inflation the bird.

3. Last time states’ governorship flipped.

4. Tough year for incumbents?

5. Young women more liberal than young men.

6. Signal or Noise?

The Missouri Ethic Commission got hit with a technical glitch yesterday. As a result, the website that candidates use to file their quarterly finance reports was offline.  As of this morning, there are some campaigns that haven’t filed yet, preventing a full view of the quarter. But I made a spreadsheet.  It has the state senate primaries as well as statewide races (I threw on “Governor 2024” as well).

Carpenters back Wiemann

In Senate 2, the Carpenters’ union sent $100K to Rep. John Wiemann’s PAC.

CFG PAC Hits KC Airwaves

Pro-Rick Brattin ads sponsored by the School Freedom Foundation – a PAC aligned with the Club for Growth – have begun airing. “President Trump is still battling for this country and Rick Brattin is ready to join the fight.”   Tagline: Rick Bratton. For Trump. For Congress.

Roorda Ad

Jeff Roorda is now on the air in Senate 22.  It’s a law-and-order ad entitled “Protect and Serve” referencing his time as Jefferson County police officer, and his time as a state representative.